The tariff war launched by the United States was already making waves by February. While Italy’s exports rose both month-over-month and year-over-year, trade with Washington plummeted: -9,6%. This is confirmed by Italy’s national statistics agency in its report on foreign trade for February 2025—considered the last month of relative calm before global trade was shaken by the US tariffs. 

Even the early announcements—before actual threats and measures were enacted—impacted business decisions, prompting companies to reposition themselves by seeking new partners and buyers on this side of the Atlantic. Meanwhile, Confindustria (Italy’s main employers’ association) is raising the alarm on the state of Italian manufacturing and industry.

The sector, already under strain for months, now faces the risk of a "structural crisis" due to rising costs driven by Trump-era tariffs. In February, Confindustria’s research center recorded a 0.9% drop in industrial production.

In February 2025, Istat estimated a sharper monthly increase in exports (+3.5%) compared to imports (+1.7%). The monthly rise in exports affected both EU countries (+3.7%) and non-EU countries (+3.2%). In the three-month period from December 2024 to February 2025, exports rose by 4.0% compared to the previous quarter, while imports increased by 3.0%. On a year-over-year basis, the countries contributing the most to the increase in Italian exports were Germany, Spain, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, OPEC countries, and the Netherlands. On the flip side, the United States showed a sharp decline (-9.6%).