Despite persistent geopolitical uncertainty, Cerved’s latest Industry Forecast suggests that Italian businesses are poised for a revenue rebound in the next two years. Real revenues are expected to grow by 1.2% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026, marking a cumulative 1.7% rise compared to 2023. This recovery is attributed to a revival in exports and domestic consumption, reversing the 0.9% contraction seen in 2024—particularly in the fashion and automotive sectors.

The turnaround is driven by stronger household incomes, easing inflation, and the continued expansionary stance of European monetary policy. However, risks remain, particularly from the possibility of new U.S. tariffs, which could threaten key Made-in-Italy products like mineral water, extra virgin olive oil, and Prosecco—sectors heavily reliant on the U.S. market.