Reaching €9 billion in agri-food exports to the United States is the goal set by Coldiretti and Filiera Italia, despite the challenges posed by tariffs and a weak dollar. The recent introduction of additional U.S. duties has significantly slowed the growth of Italian food exports to America.

In the first month of implementation, exports rose by just 1.3%, a sharp drop from the 28.7% increase recorded during the same period last year. This figure raises serious concerns, especially as negotiations between the European Union and the U.S. continue. This is highlighted in an analysis by Coldiretti, based on Istat data, released during the opening of the Fancy Food Show in New York.

In April, with the new U.S. tariffs in effect—initially set at 20% and then reduced to 10%—the growth of Italian agri-food exports to the U.S. dropped significantly compared to April 2024. Even when compared with the first quarter of 2025, which saw an 11% increase, the slowdown is clear. A more complete picture will emerge with the figures from May and June, once the “stockpiling effect” wears off.

Early warning signs came from the wine sector: in April, wine exports fell by 9%, compared to an 18.1% increase the previous April. Cheese sales remained positive (+7%) but well below the +24.5% from a year earlier. The drop was even more dramatic for olive oil, which plummeted from +75% to -17%.

Tariffs are also affecting American consumers, who are facing rising inflation and a weakening dollar. If the 10% duty remains in place, it could lead to nearly €800 million in added costs for U.S. households, with negative repercussions for Italian producers as well. There’s also a growing risk of Italian sounding products gaining ground. The U.S. leads the world in fake “Made in Italy” foods, especially cheeses, with an estimated market value exceeding €40 billion.

Tariffs introduced during Donald Trump’s first term had already caused a sharp drop in exports between 2019 and 2020: -15% for fruit, -28% for processed meats and seafood, -19% for cheeses and jams, and -20% for liqueurs. Even wine, though not initially targeted, experienced a 6% decline.