Italy has sourced sufficient alternative supplies of gas from North Africa to make up for any shortfalls this winter if Russia were to immediately cut off all exports to the country, according to people familiar with matter. A boost of expected gas deliveries from Algeria and Egypt will be able to cover the remaining supplies Italy still gets from Russia, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the estimates are private.

Italy originally expected to achieve independence from Russian gas by spring 2025, but it must expand its regasification capacity to ensure a repeat of this winter’s results, the people said. Russian gas currently accounts for about 10% of Italian imports, down from around 40% before Russia invaded Ukraine in February, according to the people. A very cold winter, pipeline damage or a delay in the newly sourced supplies could also hamper Italy’s effort, the people said.