New tariffs could result in significant losses for Italian exports to the U.S., with estimates ranging from 3 billion euros at a 10% tariff to as high as 12 billion if tariffs rise to 20%. Analysts from the OECD, Svimez, and other organizations are expressing pessimism about the economic outlook.

Italian entrepreneurs are particularly concerned, as they are already facing rising energy costs and geopolitical risks. The U.S. market is worth around 67 billion euros, with Italy’s export value growing by 58.6% from 2018 to 2023. In 2024, the biggest growth sectors were pharmaceuticals, food, beverages, and machinery.